Launches dynamic, more comprehensive model
Maritime Traffic Forecasts has launched a unique forecasting service – Maricasts – that builds on forecast models developed over fifteen years to successfully forecast traffic volumes by cargo type at the port, national and regional level in a range of projects worldwide. Traffic forecasts are still widely based on simplistic relations to overall GDP trends. Such forecasts do not take into account the impact of both gradual and sudden structural changes in economies, nor the more complex relationship between volumes of cargo by type and different economic sectors.
Maricasts produces enhanced and more accurate forecasts. It incorporates the most significant component parts of GDP (sectors), and the inter-relationships of the main drivers of future cargo volumes by type are allowed to vary over time, which leads to better projections of future levels of different traffic volumes.
The Maricasts model can be used to forecast all traffic, either at cargo type level (container, dry bulk, liquid bulk, general cargo) or at commodity specific level. For instance, it can be used to forecast volumes of coal, iron ore, crude oil or refined product traffic through a port, country or region.
The dynamic Maricasts model also takes into account infrastructural and industry developments that are known to be occurring, or can reasonably be expected to develop, over the forecast period.
Maritime Traffic Forecasts founder, director & modelling forecast specialist Bill Eadie said: “Every component that contributes to the growth of the overall economy will have a different impact on cargo volumes. This is because each sector will be growing at different rates at every point in time, creating a complex and dynamic impact on traffic volumes. It is essential to projections of cash flow and profitability that the variations in growth rates for each component of GDP is reflected in long-term traffic forecasts. This is core to our model and is not generally offered elsewhere.”
Fellow director & economist Graham Cox added: “A crucial factor in our methodology is that it does not impose a static set of relationships over time. This addresses potential errors that structural change in economies can introduce into forecasts. We believe this, along with other unique features of our service, will enable port operators, investors and lenders to increase the degree of confidence they have in the projections used to assess prospects and risk.”
According to Maricasts director & co-founder Alan Goldman, previously available traffic projections were based on a very limited number of variables, which may be satisfactory for simple port operations in economies experiencing steady growth and stability, but it is inadequate when growth rates have been variable, particularly as the world economy has become increasingly interdependent and unstable.
Source: Eye for Transport